Updated 1 November 2026. Spot gold ended Friday 30 October at about $3,875 an ounce, down 3.62 percent on the day and 3.74 percent on the week, after a weekly range of $4,082.50 to $3,870.25 (Kitco). Kitco’s weekly survey shows the professionals turning: 10 of 16 Wall Street analysts (63 percent) expect lower prices this week and only one expects a gain, while 53 percent of 184 retail voters still expect higher prices. Verdict: the week ahead is a fight between a bearish Street and dip-buyers, settled by the data from Monday’s ISM report to Friday’s payrolls. Reference levels: $3,750 below, $4,000 above.
Key facts
- Price: spot gold last traded at $3,875.05 in Kitco’s Friday report; Investing.com and Trading Economics put the 30 October close at $3,875.55 and $3,875.84. Markets reopen on Sunday evening.
- Wall Street survey: of 16 analysts, 1 (6 percent) expects higher prices, 10 (63 percent) lower and 5 (31 percent) sideways (Kitco, 30 October).
- Main Street survey: of 184 online votes, 98 (53 percent) expect higher prices, 56 (30 percent) lower and 30 (16 percent) consolidation (Kitco).
- Distance travelled: gold traded near $4,700 in late August (Kitco), so Friday’s close is about 18 percent below that level.
- The Fed: rates were held at 3.75-4.00 percent on 28 October with two officials voting for a hike, and markets have been pricing another hike this year (see our Saturday gold page).
- The week: ISM manufacturing on Monday, JOLTS and the US midterms on Tuesday, ADP and ISM services on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday and October payrolls on Friday (Kitco).
Why Wall Street turned bearish
The professionals’ case rests on one level. Gold failed to hold $4,000 for most of last week and then broke below $3,900 on Friday. Jesse Colombo of the BubbleBubble Report said he was watching the $3,900-$4,000 support zone, and that if it broke, “the next support I’m looking at is around $3,500” (Kitco). It broke on Friday.
Others put numbers on the next leg. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex said gold could fall to the $3,750-$3,850 range and that “gold’s shine has dulled”. Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management said he was bearish for the coming week. Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro expects further declines and is revisiting an earlier $3,300 scenario, and Daniel Pavilonis of StoneX sees gold possibly near $3,000, with silver in the high $30s, most likely by the first quarter (Kitco).
Main Street is still buying the dip
Retail voters took the opposite view: more than half expect a rise this week. They are not alone. Rich Checkan of Asset Strategies International called for an unchanged week and advised buying every drop, and Commerzbank called Friday’s precious-metals decline exaggerated, blaming margin-call selling after the tech rout, and still expects a recovery (via CNBC, on our Saturday page). When professionals and retail split this sharply, the data usually settles it.
The data that decides the week
Gold pays no interest, so this week’s numbers matter through one channel: what they do to Fed hike bets. Strong data on Monday (ISM manufacturing), Tuesday (JOLTS job openings) and Wednesday (ADP and ISM services) would back the hike case and the Street’s bearish call. Neil Welsh of Britannia Global Markets said a weak payrolls report on Friday could support gold, but that a single release may not be enough to turn it (Kitco).
Oil is the other input. Higher crude feeds the inflation numbers behind hike bets, and OPEC+ meets today with Brent near $113 (see our Sunday Brent page). The midterms on Tuesday add a political risk that can push buyers either way. Our Friday gold page has the start of the selloff.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,750 | Strong ISM and jobs data add to hike bets, the tech selloff continues and the Street’s bearish call plays out. | The bottom of Marc Chandler’s $3,750-$3,850 range, about 3.2 percent below Friday’s close. |
| Base | $3,800-$3,950 | Selling slows once margin calls are met, but gold stays below $4,000 while markets price another hike. | Inside Chandler’s range up to the old support area. |
| Bull | $4,000 | Weak payrolls cool hike bets, stocks stabilise and retail dip-buying wins the week. | The line gold lost last week, about 3.2 percent above Friday’s close. |
The bear case sits below Friday’s close. These are reference levels measured from the verified close, not forecasts.
What to watch
- $3,870.25: last week’s low. A break in Asian trading would put Chandler’s range in play quickly.
- Monday’s ISM manufacturing report, the first data point of the week.
- Tuesday’s midterm results and the JOLTS report.
- Friday’s payrolls: the release that can turn the Street’s view, or confirm it.
Quick take: Gold ended last week near $3,875, down 3.74 percent on the week. Kitco’s survey has 63 percent of Wall Street analysts expecting lower prices and only one expecting a gain, while most retail voters still expect a rise. With ISM, JOLTS, the midterms and payrolls all this week, expect $3,800-$3,950; $3,750 needs strong data, $4,000 needs weak payrolls.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Markets are closed until Sunday evening. Spot gold ended Friday 30 October at about $3,875 an ounce, down 3.62 percent on the day (Kitco, Investing.com).
Will gold go up or down this week?
Kitco’s survey is split: 63 percent of 16 Wall Street analysts expect lower prices, while 53 percent of 184 retail voters expect higher prices. Nobody knows; the week’s data will decide.
How far has gold fallen from its high?
Gold traded near $4,700 in late August, according to Kitco, so Friday’s close is about 18 percent lower.
What could push gold lower?
Strong US data that adds to Fed hike bets. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex sees a possible move to $3,750-$3,850.
What could push gold back above $4,000?
A weak October payrolls report on 6 November that cools hike bets, along with a calmer stock market.
What US data is out this week?
ISM manufacturing (Monday), JOLTS (Tuesday), ADP and ISM services (Wednesday), jobless claims (Thursday) and nonfarm payrolls with University of Michigan sentiment (Friday), plus the US midterms on Tuesday (Kitco).
Sources: Kitco, 30 October (price, weekly range, Wall Street and Main Street survey, analyst comments, calendar, late-August level); Investing.com and Trading Economics (30 October close); CNBC via our Saturday gold page (Commerzbank); Federal Reserve (28 October decision).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.