China wants gold prices to stay lower for now because it is still accumulating bullion, according to investor and The Big Reset author Willem Middelkoop. In an interview with Kitco News anchor Jeremy Szafron, Middelkoop argued that the global monetary “reset” he has forecast for more than a decade is no longer a future event but a gradual process already reshaping the gold market.
Some of Middelkoop’s more ambitious forecasts, including gold eventually reaching $14,000 to $15,000 per ounce and silver climbing to $500, remain his personal views rather than market consensus. However, the broader themes discussed during the interview align with several structural developments that have emerged across the global gold market over the past year, particularly in China and Hong Kong.
Speaking to Jeremy Szafron of Kitco News, Middelkoop argued that many investors misunderstand China’s role in today’s gold market.
“China is a very active buyer of dips,” Middelkoop said. “They like lower prices. They like this correction. I think this correction is almost over.”
His argument is straightforward: a country that continues to accumulate large quantities of physical bullion has little incentive to encourage rapidly rising prices until its long-term buying objectives have been met.
The Evidence Points to Strong Physical Demand
While some of Middelkoop’s estimates cannot be independently verified, recent market data supports the broader trend of rising physical demand from China.
Hong Kong imported more than 130 tonnes of gold during June, the largest monthly inflow since late 2014. The increase reflected both preparations for Hong Kong’s newly launched bullion clearing mechanism and stronger demand from mainland China.
China also recorded its highest level of gold imports in two years during June as lower international prices encouraged investors to buy more bullion while banks increased inventories to satisfy retail demand.
Those developments suggest that recent buying has been driven less by speculative trading and more by physical ownership.
Unlike futures contracts or exchange-traded products, physical bullion acquired by banks, clearing institutions and long-term investors is typically removed from the immediately tradable supply. If that pattern continues, it could gradually tighten the physical gold market even without dramatic increases in investor speculation.
China’s Gold Strategy Appears to Be Changing
Middelkoop also pointed to another development that has attracted growing attention among precious metals investors: China’s decision to reduce retail participation in paper gold trading.
Several major Chinese banks recently suspended retail access to Shanghai Gold Exchange products, ending customer participation in spot and deferred gold contracts.
Middelkoop interpreted the move as part of a broader effort to encourage ownership of physical bullion rather than leveraged paper positions.
“China understands it’s all about owning the physical stuff in the end,” he told Szafron.
That interpretation cannot be confirmed by Chinese authorities, which have not described the changes in those terms. Nevertheless, the timing is notable.
The restrictions arrived alongside continued physical imports, the expansion of Hong Kong’s bullion infrastructure and pension reforms that could increase long-term demand for gold from retirement savings.
Taken together, those developments suggest a gradual shift away from short-term speculation and toward longer-term ownership of physical metal.
What Middelkoop Means by the “Reset”
Middelkoop’s central thesis differs from the popular idea that the international monetary system will suddenly return to a gold standard.
Instead, he believes the transition is already underway through changes in central bank reserve management.
Central banks have purchased historically large quantities of gold in recent years as geopolitical tensions, sanctions and concerns over sovereign debt have encouraged reserve diversification.
According to the World Gold Council, official-sector purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes annually between 2022 and 2024 before easing modestly in 2025, remaining well above long-term historical averages.
The European Central Bank has also reported that gold overtook U.S. Treasuries as the world’s largest reserve asset by market value during 2025, reflecting both sustained central bank purchases and rising gold prices.
Middelkoop argues these developments represent the early stages of a broader monetary transition.
“A monetary reset is a more gradual process. It’s not a binary event. We’re in the first innings,” he said.
Whether that process ultimately produces the dramatic price targets he forecasts remains uncertain, but the increasing role of gold in official reserves is supported by publicly available data.
Can This Push Gold Prices Higher?
The answer depends on whether current physical demand proves temporary or structural.
If Chinese imports remain elevated, Hong Kong’s new bullion clearing hub continues attracting inventory and central banks maintain their appetite for gold, more bullion could remain tied up in long-term holdings instead of circulating through the market.
That would not guarantee higher prices. Gold continues to respond to U.S. interest rates, inflation expectations, Treasury yields and movements in the U.S. dollar.
However, tighter physical supply means that periods of renewed investment demand may have a greater impact on prices than they would in a market with abundant available inventories.
This is one reason why many precious metals analysts have become increasingly focused on physical flows into Asia rather than solely watching futures positioning on COMEX.
Separating Facts From Forecasts
Investors should also distinguish between verified market developments and individual forecasts.
Recent customs data confirms stronger Chinese imports. Central bank purchases remain historically high. Hong Kong has launched a new physical bullion clearing mechanism. Those developments are well documented.
By contrast, Middelkoop’s estimates of total Chinese gold accumulation, his belief that Chinese state entities collectively control substantially more gold than officially reported, and his long-term forecasts of $14,000 to $15,000 gold and $500 silver remain his personal views rather than established facts.
Even so, his interview with Jeremy Szafron raises an important question for investors.
If China continues buying physical bullion during every price correction while Western investment demand eventually returns through exchange-traded funds and institutional portfolios, the next major move in gold may be driven less by speculative trading and more by a gradual tightening of the physical market. That would represent a significant shift from the dynamics that have dominated gold pricing for much of the past two decades.